Posts Tagged ‘Forex’

Forex Trading: FAP Turbo

Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

Forex Trading One Star

The Forex currency exchanges are the most liquid markets in the world. In contrast to stock exchanges the Forex market never sleeps (except weekends then). All day long huge amounts of dollars, pounds, euros, yens and whatnot are changing owners. This makes the prices fluctuate very rapidly and lets you buy and sell currency without having to sit around long waiting for the prices to move.

Buy low, sell high right. How hard can it be? Turns out pretty hard. Contrary to the seemingly predictable zig-zag pattern that typically shows itself when looking at a market curve in hindsight, knowing what moves are to come is unfortunately not that straight forward. That said there are lots of techniques that can be used to try to predict future Forex price changes. And a fair amount of experienced traders using them and making a good deal of money. The drawback is that this method requires endless studying of charts and curves, book reading and ability to take significant losses once in a while. And, as in poker, even still, not everyone can be good at it.

Ta-da this is where FAP Turbo enters. It turns your computer into a relentless super trader, doing all market analysis and mind numbing math for you. And yes, it works “even when you sleep”.. Any sarcasm? Still though a trading “robot” for Forex markets is not a terrible idea. The fact that also human traders rely heavily (and mostly) on technical analysis for knowing when to buy and sell should make a fine tuned computer program the ultimate trader right? And myself though speaking from limited experience of Forex trading I guess there are trader bots that are profitable in the long run. Or at least it doesn’t seem impossible. Still the bots are just more or less successful attempts at emulating good traders, and the holistic market view that comes with experience unfortunately can never be fully accounted for. Also, the bots don’t tend to follow the 9 o’clock business news which have a tendency to screw up an ever so carefully and mechanically analyzed trade.

So far lots of info about the Forex market, which many of you reading this may already know, and may know better than me. What about FAP Turbo again then? What is it said to achieve? The first thing the selling pitch claims is that it is not illegal. And no it’s not. How could it be? We’re not selling our neighbors hub caps, we’re selling dollars. It then claims to “win” 99.68% of the trades. Here it’s time to raise our eyebrows. How is this possible? Do they purposly want to lose their credibility already? It turns out their system is based on many very very small profits accompanied by the occational huge loss. (Pretty similar in profit curve as martingale betting systems will provide). This is done by setting the bar for collecting a profit much lower than the bar for “stop/loss”. A simple numerical example would be if you bought something for 45 and looked to resell it for 50, and if there were no buyers in sight you decided to keep looking for that price of 50 until market price hit 10, and you gave up and sold it at 10. This, like pilots say like about a mid-air collision, can ruin your whole day.

Even still, 99.68% winning ratio to me seems impossible over time. Long term user tests also indicate that you will see very different numbers. Such numbers largely though depend on what risk you are willing to take (yes you can adjust the stopp/loss levels), but acheiving somewhere near 99% would mean huge risk, and that you will eventually go bankrupt if you hit a few losses in a short time span. Amusingly, and probably strategically, the word “risk” is never used in the FAP Turbo selling pitch. One of the testamonial guys, though, claims that the system is “risk free”. I guess he deserves a silent prayer from all of us.

Risks aside, what you all want to know though I guess is whether this robot on average can be expected to be profitable or not in the long run. Unfortunately I haven’t had the monetary means putting my hard earned cash on the line for this type of long term data. But there are those who have, and while the results in that, and other real money account histories I’ve seen, are not altogether conclusive, my overall impression is that Forex trading with FAP Turbo might lose you all, might win you some, but on average probably will lose you some. What I can safely say is that the numbers you should expect are not remotely close to what the FAP Turbo page is advertising. Also claimed drawdowns (the share of your bankroll you can expect to lose when losing a trade)  of 0.37% is simply insanely false. Judging from their bankroll, profits and T/P and P/L levels on single trades their drawdowns can be up to in the ballpark of 30%. That is, a losing trade like that means you lost 30% of your money. Finally I should add that FAP Turbo is hardly the first trading bot to emerge. There are lots of others, and many of them are free. At least sites like fxcm.com provide one or two dozen of them to use with their trading platform.

FAP Turbo is notoriously reported ignoring refund requests, but as with any product marketed through Clickbank, if you contact Clickbank directly before the end of the trial period, you should not have any problems getting refunded.

http://www.fapturbo.com/